food crisis.
"To despair itself is sold, it only remains to find the formula. "Léo Ferré.
How did we get here? What is she exactly? Is it real, invented, produced, strategic ...?
Knowledgeable people are trying to alert the world community since 1936, since 1983, since 2006, but without tangible results. The awareness must be generalized. The crisis must be understood as a predictable and logical step for a system that also caused the global financial crises and the situation remains precarious a growing number of people to maintain itself.
We are becoming more global citizen and as such we now have the rights (very limited) and duties. Inquire about this subject is one of those duties. Afterwards, Nature abhors a vacuum, if we do not individually political space that is normally occupied by a citizen of the world, others already well organized, take it and own it.
My contribution today will be to advance some explanatory factors.
Global population growth is real. Between 2007 and 2025 the world population will increase by 20%. If we put this figure in conjunction with the steady decline in arable land area, one can easily conclude that, consistent performance, amount of cereals per capita will continue to decline, unless new measures are not taken. The urban population is higher than the rural population since 2007 across the globe. The expansion of cities has reduced fertile areas traditionally reserved for agriculture. The phenomenon of desertification and rising sea levels will increase even more the decrease of arable land. With urbanization, we note that in countries with strong economic growth, like China (rate of economic growth to 2 digits for at least 25 years), dietary habits are changing. In these countries the income of people leaving the countryside for the city, they find a job increases. The neo-urban areas consume more meat and dairy products. Note that it takes between 10 to 15 kilograms of grain to produce 1 kilo of beef, 3 pounds of grain for 1 pound of chicken, that explains the internal pressure experienced some major cereal producing states. As such, China has recently become an importer of grain. Global markets are residual grain. If we take the example of rice, those are 30 million tonnes are placed on the international market a year or less than 7% of world production. Thus, as soon as events are reducing the production of a large producer supply is reduced on the international market. Countries that are experiencing substantial food deficit, which therefore depend on the international market are in a situation of strong dependence. A sword of Damocles is harvest after harvest over and above their heads, and it is much worse, of their populations.
us understand that an accumulation of cyclical and structural factors have caused this situation.
us understand that the increase in oil prices from 55 U.S. dollars a barrel to 119 dollars during the past year and a half, partly explains the increase in food prices base. For people using more than 70% of their income on food (for comparison, we talk about 17% of income allocated to food in Canada), the increase in food prices is dramatic. We can not discuss the evolution of the oil market not to mention the global financial market. It seems that the grain market interest "these ruthless vultures" of global finance (to use an expression of one of these people s'afférant for many years to prevent this situation). It seems that the grain market is a haven from market fluctuations less predictable and highly speculative oil market. Today, what prevents him from doing a lot of money on the international market for food? Not much. It should be noted in this connection that the price of a significant proportion of world grain trade on the Chicago exchange in the United States. With the liberalization of agricultural producers not practically no influence on the prices of their own productions.
noted that climate change and its consequences explain part of the phenomenon. When Australia, one of the five major grain producers the world saw two major droughts in a row, it has an impact on the level of world grain reserves which is the lowest since the last twenty years. Of course the effects of climate change are much more extensive.
Add another very interesting phenomenon, that of biofuels. The figures speak for themselves. In 2007, 5% of grain produced that joined the tanks of our cars rather than the stomachs of individuals. We are talking about 134 million tons of grain were processed into biofuel, mostly from corn in the U.S. (80 million United States alone). Brazil also produces 400 million tons of sugarcane for biodiesel production. Europeans transformed mainly from rapeseed. That so many agricultural products that have not joined the food market. Projections for the next 5 years are alarming because of investments in the direction of development of this industry are listed on all continents without exception.
In this context grain producing countries have closed their doors or increased export restrictions to meet their domestic demand as a priority and ensure food security.
It should be noted that Projects supported by the World Bank in developing countries in the last 15 years have largely neglected the agricultural sector. While funding and strongly recommending the liberalization of agricultural sectors while framed by the states and that in a little face and not accompanied by progressive, the World Bank has undermined access to food resources for people already in precarious situations. They are yet another mea culpa right now and promise to support the development of agricultural sectors.
One thing is certain, countries in crisis are unfortunately still at the beginning and it could have a snowball effect, that is to say, spread to other countries and also over several years. Their movements are very limited if not nonexistent. After you have to know that a number of countries do not wish to identify themselves as being in crisis. The situation presented to us is not one that actually exists.
simply note that the World Food Programme (WFP) United Nations calls for international support of U.S. $ 2 billion to ensure a minimum caloric to the victims of the global food crisis. Note that the war in Iraq has already cost more than $ 500 billion and the U.S. subprime financial crisis in the U.S. just listen to one trillion U.S. dollars at the international level. The emergency food assistance is only a limited time response and is obviously not a solution to resolve the crisis permanently.
Note that we know since 1983 that the planet is able to feed 10 billion people without doing so would jeopardize the sustainability of resources. The use of GMOs were not contained in the list of guidelines to promote.
solutions and the risks are known! And for some time!
I am attaching some links for further research. And I think, always ask the question: who benefits food? Hypothesis
very personal. The next major rice harvest will not come from Asia, which produces 90% of rice in the world and will be in December-January. In this year's Olympic game China is the United States will take place the next major harvest in September-October with a surplus trade 3-4000000 tons of rice ...
same time the U.S. government has just announce an increase in food aid to his country. Say that the producers grain of this country do not have to fear this year regarding the sale of their productions. Say that the country has something to negotiate this year on the market influences international politics. But of course I'm wrong.
The FAO website: http://www.fao.org/index_fr.htm
The joint OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook for the coming years: http://www .oecd.org/dataoecd/7/44/38896704.pdf
Institute International Rice Research: http://www.irri.org/
CADTM: http://www.cadtm .org / spip.php? article3269
Oxfam International: http://www.oxfam.org/fr/
article by Jean Ziegler (UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food) on biofuels, Le Monde, 14 April 2008: http://www.lemonde.fr/sciences-et-environnement/article/2008/04/14/les-biocarburants-accuses-d-exacerber-la-crise-alimentaire_1034251_3244.html
The same Ziegler in Le Monde Diplomatique , March 2008: http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2008/03/ZIEGLER/15658
Serge Halimi, Le Monde Diplomatique, March 2008: http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2008 / 05/HALIMI/15859 International Monetary Fund
: http://www.imf.org/external/french/index.htm
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